Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
